Make It Official! Twins 4, Blue Jays 3: Royce Lewis Undoes That Slump Thing (2024)

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K (94 Pitches, 62 Strikes, 65.9%)
Home Runs: Royce Lewis (16)
Top 3 WPA: Lewis (.586), Ober (.194), Jhoan Duran (.161)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

The nice thing about team sports is that losing by 15 is the same as losing by one--most of the time, anyway. In stroke play golf, losing 15 strokes means you will not win the tournament. With the Guardians, Royals and Red Sox all losing Saturday, though, the Twins' playoff prospects slightly improved, despite their own shellacking. Not only that, but losing a blowout means your best relief arms were not used.

Which is all to sugarcoat the fact that this team is not playing well, and if the Red Sox were operating with any sort of functionality, the sixth playoff spot would be in serious danger. Instead, the Tigers are threatening to overtake Boston in the standings as they won their three-game weekend series at Fenway Park.

The Twins received some reinforcements with rosters expanding for September. Diego Castillo returns to the bullpen, and Brooks Lee returns to shortstop, while Michael Helman had his contract purchased in the wake of Manuel Margot's injury. Castillo and Helman are depth pieces, but Lee's return means the Twins will play a pure shortstop rather than Willi Castro or Kyle Farmer. The former lacks the instincts, the latter lacks the range and arm, but Lee has shown flashes of being a B+ level shortstop. He also pushes Castro to more of a utility role, which helps with pinch-hitting and defensive replacements later in games.

Today's game pitted Bailey Ober against Blue Jays rookie Yariel Roodriguez. The game started auspiciously, given Ober's most recent start, and the Twins' most recent game, with Ernie Clement taking Ober deep on a first pitch fastball up in the zone. But Ober did settle in after that, with no real threats in the Jay's lineup (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho had the day off).

Rodriguez turned some heads in the World Baseball Classic pitching for Cuba. There was a minor bidding war for his services after he became an international free agent, but what the Jays ended up getting was middling performance around a spinal injury and a brief demotion to Triple-A. He began Sunday's tilt by getting a favorable call on a 3-2 pitch to Willi Castro, then allowing a hit and two walks before retiring Royce Lewis on a warning track fly ball.

Rodriguez was not long for the game, leaving after three innings in favor of career bulk pitcher, lefty Ryan Yarbrough. The last time the Jays removed a pitcher early at Target Field in favor of a lefty for unclear or dubious reasons, it did not go well for them. Today, Yarbrough started by hitting Austin Martin, who advanced to second on a grounder from Lewis. Max Kepler then popped up, and second baseman Leo Jimenez made a Derek Jeter-style diving catch, jumping into the stands with no concern for his well-being. Lee then popped out to end the threat and keep the game at 1-0.

Ober coasted through much of the game, keeping the Jays off balance with a mix of his fastball and change-up. After an impressive ten pitch at-bat resulting in a walk from Nathan Lukes leading off the sixth, Lee misplayed a little soft liner from Clement to put runners at first and second with no one out. That brought back memories of a week and a half ago, where Jake Cronenworth's blooper set up Manny Machado's game-breaking homer off Ober. This time, with no borderline Hall of Famers to contend with, Ober struck out the side, two on fastballs, one on a beautiful change-up to right fielder Addison Barger. Ober did not allow a hit following the first inning home run.

As it started to feel like one run would be too much to overcome for the Twins' lineup, Lewis began the seventh inning by drawing a walk. A stitched together husk of what used to be Max Kepler then struck out, bringing up Lee to face lefty Brendon Little. Lee grounded to the third baseman, Luis De Los Santos, who threw wildly trying to get the lead runner, with the ball ending up in right field. That put runners on the corners for Santana, who dribbled a ball up the third base line to score Lewis and tie the game. Castro then drew a walk, but Miranda struck out to end the frame.

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The Jays put pressure on Griffin Jax immediately in the eighth. Lukes drew a walk on a questionable 3-2 call that went Toronto's way, and Clement then smacked a single the other way, bringing up Spencer Horowitz, one of the heroes of Saturday's disemboweling. Horowitz lined out to deep center on a 3-1 pitch, and Barger drew a walk. Jax then hit Jimenez with the first pitch of the at-bat, scoring Lukes and handing the lead back to Toronto. Joey Loperfido then hit a run scoring chopper to score Clement. Jax had not allowed an earned run the entire month of August.

You may have heard that the Jays' excellent closer, Jordan Romano, has been injured and ineffective this year. He remains out, but former Yankee errand-boy Chad Green has stepped into the closer role and been excellent, with a 1.61 ERA entering the day. He allowed back-to-back hits to Jeffers and Martin and got into a lengthy battle with Lewis, who fouled off some tough pitches and missed hittable ones before getting a slider on the eighth pitch of the at-bat and launching it just over Lukes' outstretched glove for a three-run, game-changing home run, a 60% change in win-expectancy.

Jhoan Duran was then called up on to protect the newfound lead. He locked up De Los Santos with three curveball but hit backup catcher Brian Serven with a 102 MPH fastball. He then got Lukes to dribble the ball back to the mound, where Duran non-chalantly gathered and threw to first, barely retiring Lukes and prompting a challenge from the Jays' bench. The call was confirmed and Duran retired Clement to seal the desperately-needed series win.

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Stray Notes:
-I thought they might do it, with Carlos Santana pinch-hitting for second baseman Edouard Julien in the fifth, and they did it, switching Santana to first for Miranda, putting Miranda at third and inserting Lewis at second. It went well, with Lewis making two putouts in the seventh inning behind Cole Sands.

What’s Next: Simeon Woods Richardson (5-3, 3.85 ERA) goes against former Twin Zack Littell (5-8, 3.89 ERA) The Rays sold off everything that wasn't nailed down this past trade deadline, but remain the Rays and have hung around the .500 Mark, a hot streak away from jumping back into contention. SWR deserved better his last time out against the Braves, and is looking to finish strong as he makes his case to be the Twins' number three starter for a potential playoff run.

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart: